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Subseasonal data model

tags: reference - subseasonal

Data sources

The subseasonal service provides forecasts for the next 21 days. The forecasts cover Norway, Sweden, Finland and Denmark. The extent of the domain is shown in the illustration below.

Nordic region

The subseasonal forecast is based on 3 weather prediction models:

  1. The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System MEPS. MetCoOp is the Meteorological Cooperation on Operational Numeric Weather Prediction (NWP) between Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), MET Norway, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and Estonian Weather Service. It provides short term forecasts (0 - 60 hours) and has a horizontal resolution of 2.5 kilometers. Forecasts are updated every hour.
  2. The atmospheric model Ensemble 15-day forecast from ECMWF. Forecasts are updated twice pr day. Horizontal resolution is approximately 10 km. These forecasts are used for days 3 - 15.
  3. The Atmospheric Model Ensemble extended forecast from ECMWF. Forecasts are updated once every day. Horizontal resolution is approximately 36 km. These forecasts are used for days 15 - 21.

All forecasts are downscaled to a 1x1 km grid and post-processed to better represent local geographical features. They may therefore differ substantially from the original weather prediction models.

Variables

The variables are aggregations, minima/maxima or average over a time period, either for the next 24 hours or 7 days.

Next 24 hours

Name Unit Description
air_temperature_max celsius expected maximum air temperature
air_temperature_max_percentile_10 celsius 10th percentile of maximum air temperature (i.e 10% chance maximum will be below this value)
air_temperature_max_percentile_90 celsius 90th percentile of maximum air temperature (i.e 10% chance maximum will be above this value)
air_temperature_mean_percentile_10 celsius 10th percentile of daily average air temperature (i.e 10% chance mean will be below this value)
air_temperature_mean celsius expected daily average temperature
air_temperature_mean_percentile_90 celsius 90th percentile of daily average air temperature (i.e 10% chance mean will be above this value)
air_temperature_min celsius expected minimum air temperature
air_temperature_min_percentile_10 celsius 10th percentile of minimum air temperature (i.e 10% chance minimum will be below this value)
air_temperature_min_percentile_90 celsius 90th percentile of minimum air temperature (i.e 10% chance minimum will be above this value)
precipitation_amount_percentile_10 mm 10th percentile of precipitation amount (i.e 10% chance amount will be below this value)
precipitation_amount mm expected precipitation amount
precipitation_amount_percentile_90 mm 90th percentile of precipitation amount (i.e 10% chance amount will be above this value)
probability_of_frost % probability of 2m air temperature below 0 degrees
probability_of_precipitation % probability of of more than 0.5 mm of precipitation
probability_of_heavy_preciptation % probability of more than 10 mm of precipitation

Next 7 days

Name Unit Description
precipitation_amount mm precipitation amount
precipitation_amount_percentile_10 mm 10th percentile of precipitation amount (i.e 10% chance it will be below this value)
precipitation_amount_percentile_90 mm 90th percentile of precipitation amount (i.e 10% chance it will be above this value)
probability_of_frost % probability of 2m air temperature below 0 degrees

The variable names are based on the international CF Standard Name vocabulary, which is mandatory for all governmental scientific institutions under the EU INSPIRE directive.

—Ivar Ambjørn Seierstad, 8 August 2023